Vikings vs. Rams - TNF Preview and Picks

The (5-1) Vikings head to LA to take on the (2-4) Rams. Cooper Kupp is back, and it couldn’t come at a better time for the Rams. After being sidelined since Week 2, Kupp’s return tonight against the Vikings could be the spark the Rams need—or maybe just a showcase for potential suitors, since word is they’re open to trading him. If that’s true, expect Kupp to make a statement on the field.

The Rams, fresh off a shaky 20-15 win against a truly awful Raiders team, haven’t exactly looked like the SB contenders they once were. But there’s hope—they’re 2-1 at home this season, and with Kupp back in action, the offense should have a little more firepower. They’ll need it because the Vikings, despite their own struggles last week, pose a tough matchup

Although the Vikings have the number one defense according to PFF, they’ve given up the 6th most passing yards in the league this year, making them a prime target for Stafford and the Rams’ air attack. The Rams’ ground game has been surprisingly effective so far, but that might not hold up tonight—Minnesota’s rush defense is 4th best in the NFL, allowing just three rushing TDs all season. So yeah, don’t expect the Rams to run all over them.

That said, the Rams could have a big opportunity through the air, especially with Kupp back in the mix. The Vikings’ secondary is a slight weak point, ranking 4th worst in the league against WR receiving yards. If Stafford can keep his cool against Minnesota’s blitz-happy defense, he’s got a chance to exploit that. Plus, head coach Sean McVay has a knack for getting his team ready on short weeks—13-6 ATS overall and a ridiculous 10-1 ATS in his last ten short-turnaround games.

But the line movement here is the real head-scratcher. Despite 80% of the bets coming in on the Vikings, the line is shifting in favor of the Rams. That’s a major red flag—when the line moves against public money, it usually means the sharp bettors are on the other side. Translation: there’s some serious belief that the Rams can cover.

Now, on the other side of the ball, Sam Darnold’s been solid this season, but he’s got a problem with zone coverage—which the Rams play more than 75% of the time. Add to that the Rams’ recent success in pressuring opposing quarterbacks, and Darnold could be in for a shaky night. He struggles when he’s under pressure, and the Rams will be bringing it.

The Vikings’ defense blitzes constantly and can give QBs fits, and while Stafford’s known to struggle under pressure, he’s also one of the most seasoned guys in the league. With Kupp as his safety valve, that experience could help him manage the heat. I don’t know, there’s something about this line that seems fishy.

Picks:

Rams +3: The line movement says the sharp money is on L.A.
Under 48: Two tough defenses, and both teams could struggle to move the ball consistently in a short week.
Kupp Over 7 Receptions / ATD: Expect him to get plenty of targets. Especially if the Rams are behind.
Jalen Nailor ATD: A sneaky good bet if you’re looking for a longshot to score.