LA Dodgers vs. NY Mets - Preview / Picks (10/16)

The Mets head back home to Queens after splitting the first two games of the series in LA. Citi Field should be quite the scene tonight, as my fellow sickos blindly swipe their credit cards for $600 tickets in hopes of witnessing another drama filled performance by the Metropolitains.

We got Buehler vs Severino on the bump. When I first saw this matchup, I immediately thought the total would be no lower than 8.5 given how shellable both these pitchers are. But it looks like the weather is keeping this at 7.5. It’s going to be low 50’s, high 40’s, with 12mph winds blowing out to right. Typically, it’s harder to hit in cold weather games as the denser air increases resistance, and decreases elasticity in the ball. But It will also significantly impact grip, movement, and command for everyone pitching. I’m banking on the latter. Especially with these two on the mound.

Let’s start with Buehler, who relies on his Four Seam (29%) to get up on the count, and his Cutter (20.8%), and Knuckle Curve (19.2%) to put batters away. That Knuckle Curve is going to be hard to throw in these conditions. Especially from a Kentucky born, LA-based loser with bad numbers in cold weather games. The last two times he pitched a playoff game in sub 60 degrees was in 2021 vs the Giants, where he gave up 3 ER off 2 HR in a loss in SF, and vs Atlanta, where he gave up 6 ER. He’s going to rely on his fastball, and unfortunately for him, the Mets have feasted on them this year ranking top 10 in both runs scored and HRs.

Additionally, this Mets lineup has seen success vs. Buehler in the past. Alonso is (5/14) with 4 HRs, Marte is (2/8) with 2 Doubles, Lindor is (1/2) with 1 HR, and Iglesias is (4/10). Mark Vientos does not have any ABs vs. Buehler. Look for Alonso and Vientos’s opposite field power with the left to right wind. As well as Lindor to turn on one batting lefty vs. the right handed Buehler.

Severino also relies on his Four Seam (35.5%), and the Sinker (24.8%) Sweeper (17.2%) for offspeed stuff. Throughout September, we’ve seen an increased usage in his sweeper, which will be less affected by the cold. But I've watched Severino enough this year to know that he will give up some runs. Both Mookie (.324) and Ohtani (.500) have good numbers off him. Ohtani is a bad matchup for almost any pitcher besides Sean Manea, but specifically bad vs the right handed Severino.

Putting aside the pitching matchup, the first two games of the series went over the total 8. I don’t see why this number is at 7.5 with a worse pitching matchup. As for the game, I think the Mets squeak out the win in a high scoring affair. Mets fans are going to be out of control, and I simply refuse to bet against this team right now. I’ll be in attendance for game 4. LFGM.

Best Bets:

Over 7.5 (5U)

Alt Over 8.5, 9.5, 10.5

Mets ML (3U)

Mark Vientos 2+ Bases / 4+ Bases / HR
Francisco Lindor 2+ Bases / 2+ Hits
Pete Alonso 2+ Bases / 4+ Bases / HR
Mookie Betts Hit / 2+ Hits
Shohei Ohtani 2+ Bases / 4+ Bases / HR