Texans vs. Jets - TNF Preview and Best Bets
I don’t even know where to start with this Jets team. If I had to start somewhere, it’s that I’m fully convinced that the Jets are cursed until Joe Namath dies. Broadway Joe without a doubt sold his soul to the devil to win the Superbowl in 69’ and there’s nothing anyone can say to convince me otherwise. 20,380 days of misery since. Yet somehow, this fucking team finds new ways to torture its fanbase year in and year out. The expectations, the roster talent (on paper), favorable schedule.. us Jet fans should have known better. Rumor has it Namath has information on Boeing engine failures.
Last week vs. the Patriots was a must win. Despite scoring 20+ points, not turning the ball over, and allowing less than 250 yards, they lost the game.
Yet somehow, someway, the (2-6) Jets are 1.5 point favorites @ home vs. the (6-2) Texans on a short week. I’ve had multiple people reach out to me asking why the fuck the Jets are favored in this game. Yes, Stephon Diggs just tore his ACL and Nico Collins is still out, but the Texans still have CJ Stroud and Joe Mixon. The only explanation is that Vegas knows best. The public will justifiably be hammering the Texans here, but I will reluctantly trust the Citadel machine learning algorithms that thought the Jets should be favored.
These teams met last December where the Jets put a 30-6 beatdown on the Texans at home in the rain. A game where CJ Stroud got taken out before the 4th after going 10/23 with 91 yards through the air. Although the Jets defense looks like a shell of itself compared to last year, specifically against the run, they still rank 4th in PFF coverage grade this year. Stroud and the Texans will have to get creative with limited weapons in Tank Dell and Dalton Shultz. But I expect them to heavily lean on the run game with Mixon.
On the flip side, the Jets offensive line is allergic to run blocking so expect a severe reaction against a Texan’s D line that ranks 2nd in run-stop win rate. Will Anderson could also cause some problems coming off the edge on the aging Tyron Smith. Even so, I think Aaron and the Jets offense put together a good night. Rodgers is 3-1 against the Texans lifetime averaging 3.5 passing TDs. Granted he’s not the QB he once was, but the Texans pass coverage statistics are a little skewed based on the QBs they’ve played. Both of their losses have come on the road against competent QBs in Jordan Love and Sam Darnold. Look for Garret Wilson to have a big night as Adams continues to draw attention of the defense. Josh Downs, who has similar shiftiness and speed to Wilson just went for 100+ and a TD last week for the Colts. Plus, Wilson had 9 receptions for 108 yards against Stingly last year.
Overall, I’m not taking the bait on the fishy spread. Just as it feels like rock bottom for the Jets right now, it’s a perfect opportunity for them to drag the fanbase in for the eventual bullet to the head. Plus, I’ll be in attendance so I physically cannot bet against the Jets. Gimme Rodgers with a statement win against a Texans defense giving up the 2nd most TDs to WRs this year.
Best Bets:
- Jets ML / -1.5
- Alt Under 47.5
- Aaron Rodgers 2+ / 3+ Passing TDs
- Garrett Wilson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards / (Ladder 70+, 80+, 90+, 100+) / Garret Wilson ATD
- Breece Hall ATD / Under 66.5 Rushing Yards
- Dalton Schultz 40+ Receiving Yards / ATD
- Joe Mixon 80+ Rushing Yards / ATD